Sovereign debt and its sustainability is becoming a widespread concern. This report maps the four likely scenarios Greece faces, but these could very well be the choices other countries face in the near future.
Behind the incessant headlines about Greek debt and the ramifications of a “Grexit” lies the stark reality of what this crisis means for regular Greek citizens. The most striking component of the Greek crisis is its impact on jobs. One out of four Greeks is unemployed – a figure matching the United States during the Great Depression. Youth unemployment stands at over 50 percent. Greek minds are focused on this human impact of a crisis often reported through the abstract lens of finance. Addressing the country’s employment challenge is as urgent as addressing financial contagion.
The ongoing crisis in Greece has its origin in three problems. The first historical cause is an economy that did not meet many of the preconditions for joining the European Union to begin with. The second cause was rampant mismanagement of the Greek economy – lax tax collection and crony capitalism that distorted labor markets. The final cause was the 2008 global financial crisis, which amplified the consequences of the first two.
Greece is not unique. Sovereign debt and its sustainability is becoming a widespread concern. Once the nearly exclusive concern of Sub-Saharan African countries, national debt is now a pervasive problem, not only in southern Europe but also in North American economies like Puerto Rico. This report maps the four likely scenarios Greece faces, but these could very well be the choices other countries face in the near future.
Considering the pathways out of debt that Greece faces, several policy lessons emerge:
Beyond the political economy of debt in a currency union, the Greece experience also point to the challenges of reconstructing an economy hit by financial crisis. The challenge of carving an employment- generating pathway out of debt faces Greece today, but it will confront other economies tomorrow.